New on Sports Illustrated: NFL Week 10 - Best Bets Against the Spread From the SI Gambling Team
The SI Gambling team, plus our colleagues at the MMQB evaluate their best bets against the spread for Week 10 in the NFL.
Editor's Note - Odds are subject to change.
NFL Best Bets for Week 10
Please note: These are our FREE picks, not our
PREMIUM picks which are reserved for MEMBERS only at SI Fantasy PRO. Members receive alert notifications immediately upon pick release.
Ben Heisler (@bennyheis)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers (-13.5) | TOTAL: 50.5
The last time the Packers played at home, they were rudely greeted by Dalvin Cook for three touchdowns on 30 carries and 163 yards on the frigid, not-quite frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. The Packers were humiliated on their home turf and will be determined not to let James Robinson repeat history.
I expect Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and one of my favorite low-ownership DraftKings plays in Robert Tonyan to put up excellent numbers from the get-go on Jacksonville’s pitiful defense before making way for plenty of Aaron Jones & Jamaal Williams in the second half to put it away. This feels like a similar situation to what we saw from Saints/Buccaneers in which New Orleans still finished with terrific fantasy numbers, but the under hit due to an offense never getting a chance to hit their stride.
We’ve already seen the total rapidly drop from 55 down to 50 and the hook. I’d advise jumping on it now before it continues to plunge.
BEST BET: JAX @ GB UNDER 49.5
Frankie Taddeo (@Frankie_Fantasy)
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-9.5) | TOTAL: 49
The Saints have seen this line steam in their favor after opening as 6.5-point road favorites against a team that seems destined for the top portion of the 2021 NFL Draft. The line has seen a significant move beyond the prime number of a full touchdown, up to the current market offering of New Orleans as 9.5-point home favorites. The 49ers expect to be extremely short-handed once again playing without QB Jimmy Garoppolo, RB Raheem Mostert, TE George Kittle, and possibly WRs Deebo Samuel and Kendrick Bourne. On the side of the ball, the 49ers are missing a laundry list of elite defenders led by the absence of Pro Bowl DE Nick Bosa. I believe the Saints will dominate from start to finish. Grab this number before it reaches double-digits and lay the wood now.
BEST BET: New Orleans Saints -9.5
Corey Parson (@TheFantasyExec)
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+3 ) | TOTAL: 43
Frankie Taddeo always talks about optics regarding betting on the NFL, and this game is the perfect example. The Bears are losers of three straight games while the Vikings are on a two-game winning streak. This game opened up with Chicago as a two-point home favorite, then the public pushed the streaking Vikings up to a three-point favorite. The sharp money is backing the Bears, and so will I.
BEST BET: Bears +3
Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano)
Seattle Seahawks (+1.5 ) at Los Angeles Rams | TOTAL: 54.5
The Seahawks are coming off a loss to the Bills, while the Rams are fresh off a bye and on their home field. It seems like a good week to bet L.A. against Seattle's brutal defense, right? Maybe not. Since 2005, the Seahawks are 3-1 against the spread as road dogs against the Rams when the spread is three or fewer points, and all but one of those four games have gone over the total. Russell Wilson is also 23-9-2 against the spread as an underdog in his career, and we all know Russ is cookin' right now. I'll take the Seahawks plus the point and a half in this NFC West battle.
BEST BET: Seahawks +1.5
Bill Enright (@BillEnright)
Leonard Fournette Over/Under 34.5 Rushing Yards
After an embarrassing performance and loss against the Saints in Week 9, the Bucs will get back on track against the Panthers in Week 10. Recency bias is in full effect with Fournette's rushing total prop. He only had one rush for zero yards against the Saints, but in three of his previous four games, he went for more than 50 yards, including a 103-yard game against the Panthers (the same team he plays in Week 10.). Not exactly a group of studs, but here are the backs that went over 35 yards against the Panthers the last few weeks: Brian Hill, Latavius Murray, David Montgomery. Let's have faith in Fournette in Week 10.
BEST BET: OVER 34.5 rushing yards
Steve Renner (@Steve_Renner)
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) | TOTAL: 54.5
As the saying goes, if it ain't broke, don't fix it and don't bet against a winning trend. That's what we have here as once again; I am going against a team that has an upcoming Thursday Night game as the Seahawks, who cannot stop anything on defense, will have to face the Rams this week before a TNF game next week. The Rams are coming off a BYE following a bad loss at the Dolphins and have enough on the defensive side to slow down the Russell Wilson show this week. Given that the Seahawks have allowed over 1,000 yards passing the last three weeks, we should expect the rested Rams to be able to light them up as well and cover the slim -2.
BEST BET: LA Rams -1.5
Roy Larking (@StatsGuru6)
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at New York Giants | TOTAL: 44.5
Carson Wentz and the Eagles (3-4-1) head to New York following their bye week. Before the week off, Philadelphia defeated the Dallas Cowboys 23-6 and the Giants 22-21 during a pair of home games. Daniel Jones and the Giants (2-7) return home after a 23-20 victory in Washington last week. Before that, the Giants hung in against Tampa Bay but lost 25-23 at home. The Eagles bye week came at a perfect time, and they used the break to get healthy as several players return from injury here. That includes RB Miles Sanders and WR Alshon Jeffery on offense. RB Devonta Freeman and WR Golden Tate are expected to miss this contest for New York.
This NFC East rivalry rematch is quite different from the Week 7 battle as the Eagles, despite being on the road, are in a much better spot. Before the first meeting, Philadelphia traveled to the west coast to play San Francisco, battled the Steelers in Pittsburgh, and hosted the Baltimore Ravens. Scheduling doesn't get much tougher than that. The Eagles have won eight straight against the Giants – including a 34-17 win in New York last year. The Philadelphia defense ranks third with 28 sacks this season, and they will bring the heat against turnover-prone QB Daniel Jones. I am backing the well-rested Eagles in this contest.
Philadelphia is a three-point favorite at DraftKings – Lay the line and soar with the Eagles.
BEST BET: Philadelphia Eagles (-3)
Ian Ritchie (@SIGambling)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers (-13.5) | TOTAL: 49.5
This is a game Aaron Rodgers wins and wins by a lot. They have a take no prisoners approach, and Rodgers wants to prove week in and week out that he is still a top tier QB. The Jags are struggling and ripe to get blown out this weekend by the Pack.
Watch for Rodgers to use all his weapons and use this game as an opportunity to get the ball to guys not named Davante. Packers in a blowout, 34-10
BEST BET: Packers (-13.5)
Scott Atkins (@ScottFantasy)
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3) | TOTAL: 48 (from 54.5)
Rain and wind are expected in Cleveland, and this line has moved from shoot-out territory with a 54.5 total all the way down to 48. That means rather than airing it out, we should see ground and pound football. Enter Nick Chubb, who is expected back into action this Sunday, and Kareem Hunt is no slouch. Freshly rested off the bye, the Browns should dominate the Texans, who allow 5.1 yards per carry and are 28th against the run.
BEST BET: Cleveland Browns (-3)
Casey Olson (@Y2CASEY)
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) | TOTAL: 54.5
The Rams and their No. 2 ranked defense are coming off a week of rest, getting the Seahawks at home this week. The Rams are ranked eighth in passing offense, which will set up nicely against Seattle's struggling pass defense, which ranks dead last in the league. The Rams have also been successful with the run game, ranking 7th overall with 137.8 avg yds per game. We know Wilson, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett will do their thing, but not sure if it will be enough against this defense, coupled with a rested offense that can hang around.
BEST BET: RAMS -1.5
Gary Gramling, The MMQB (@GGramling_SI)
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) | TOTAL: 54.5
The Rams defense has given Russell Wilson fits going back to the Jeff Fisher days—the last time we saw this matchup, last December, the Rams utterly dominated Seattle's offense in a 28-12 win. But more than that: The games when Wilson has put up points against the Rams, it has usually come against soft coverage while facing a big deficit. As bad as Seattle is defensively, I don't think the Rams have the big-play, downfield passing game to burn them like so many other teams have. L.A.'s style of offense is sustained, clock-eating drives. And their defense has quietly blossomed into one of the NFL's best (remember in their last game—the ugly loss at Miami—the Dolphins scored 21 of their 28 points on a fumble return, punt return, and after a fumble recovery on L.A.'s 1-yard line). This total should ultimately sit in the 40s.
BEST BET: UNDER (55.5)
Mitch Goldich, The MMQB (@mitchgoldich)
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+3) | TOTAL: 43
Here we have a classic case of two teams headed in opposite directions, and the hot team is favored by only a field goal. Dalvin Cook is getting most of the attention—and deservedly so—but we should also note that Kirk Cousins is also a better quarterback when he has a great running game. It helps the play-action passing game and means he doesn't have to do as much. The Bears are scuffling. It's not just that they've lost three games in a row, but how they've lost them. It's really hard to have confidence in the offense to sustain any rhythm. The Bears haven't scored more than 23 points since Week 3, and there's a decent chance they'll need to. The Vikings struggled out of the gate, but they have plenty to play for still, given that wins over the Bears and Cowboys could get them right back to .500 by Thanksgiving.
BEST BET: Minnesota Vikings -3
